talkingDigital

Palm as a company may be a punchline, but their devices are a force to be reckoned with.

By next Saturday it will be written that the cell phone/smartphone industry hasn’t seen release buzz like this since the iPhone. Before the iPhone it was the Treo. The Blackberry was great, but never caused any significant buzz over any particular model. Android caused a buzz until people saw it in the G1.

The Palm Pre release is significant. Of course there will be shortages. There will be problems with Gen 1 models. There may be patches or even a recall as there often is with devices manufactured quickly and rushed to market to meet demand.

Before the Pre is even released, it is already an historic device. Palm has a legacy of changing the handheld market. Whether it was with the original PalmPilot or the spin-off Handspring, or the Treo or the Centro, Palm knows how to make a reliable product that does everything it is supposed to – but little more.

There have been a few lemons along them way, but with each model, they have addressed the complaints and shortcomings of the last. The original Treo 300 did not offer expansion, the Treo 600 did but did not offer a user replaceable battery, the Treo 650 did. With each new model only a few things continued to remain unaddressed, WiFi, GPS, and background processes – at least in the Palm OS versions. To bring these features to the device, Palm had to allow Windows Mobile on the device.

Palm has dropped the ball so many times the company has become an industry joke – yet they remain. While the company has become a laughing stock to the business world for its horrible decisions to split, merge, sell, buy back and change its name a few times, the Palm products have remained serious competitors.

If Palm has done anything along the way it’s been to introduce new concepts, products and platforms that give everyone else and idea on how to take those ideas and improve upon them.

Take a look at your iPhone home screen – can you see anything but an original Palm home screen? The iPhone’s ability to add applications galore… yep, Palm started that too. How about the concept of a converged device? You will have to look to someone different for that… Handspring’s VisorPhone. Of course the Handspring Visor ran on the Palm OS and was developed by the Palm inventor.

There are two ways to approach a converged device. You can fill it full of features and impress everyone at the Swiss Army Knife qualities. Or you can look at what people need a converged device to do and create a device that meets those needs.

The iPhone is the Swiss Army Knife of converged devices. It does so many wonderful things – but it does them in such limited ways. Email is great, but what if you want to email a URL? It only took Apple 2 years to introduce copy and paste into the iPhone – Apple invented copy and paste. Apple provided GPS as long as you don’t want a GPS that shows you turn-by-turn directions.

Apple provided the ability for developers to build any application they saw need and market for, as long as that application didn’t play SouthPark cartoons, run background processes, add copy and paste functions and didn’t contain any references to Kama Sutra.

Palm took a little different approach with the Pre. In the end, the Pre will not be remembered for everything it did, but for the way it went about doing what it did.

To realize the advantages of the Pre over Blackberry, iPhone, G1 and others, you have to look past the phone and analyze how such a device could be helpful.

How many email addresses do you have? How many social networks are you a part of? Do you ever want to check your messages, friend’s status, tweets, etc. from your phone? You can with many converged devices. If you want to check Facebook, you either go to m.facebook.com or you use a Facebook application. If you want to use twitter, you do something similar.

Sites like Friendfeed are finding ways to merge all of the ways we communicate into one area. However, these sites only address the desktop method of communications. Cell phones, IM, tweets, voice mail, text messaging, SMS, email, etc. This concept is where the success of the Pre begins.

Just as the Treo converged communication gadgets, the Pre aims to converge communication platforms. Rather than jump from one app to another or one site to another to communicate over various platforms, the Pre aims to bring all contacts together.

Currently there is some debate as to whether it is a good idea to merge your email, Twitter and Facebook contacts into one area – but why not? The people who conceive a massive number of contacts as overwheming and bulky are probably iPhone users. Palm OS users haven’t ever looked up a contact by scrolling through a list.

The Pre’s secret weapon is its universal search abilities made possible by two things that the iPhone does not have – background processes and a tactile keyboard.

Navigating the Pre is simple, there are few menus to scroll through. In the home screen, start typing what you are looking for. That’s it. It can be a name, an application, and appointment, an IM handle…

All you need to know is what you are looking for.

A nice platform, background processes, user replaceable battery, tactile keyboard and universal search aren’t enough to break the market barriers – that takes the one thing that only Android offers – an open platform.

While it is proprietary and the core will be locked down, the Pre will be no iPhone when it comes to the OS. WebOS has been described by Palm as an open platform developed on Linux. This means that the true threat to the Pre will not be the iPhone – it will more likely be Android.

Already the responces from Palm’s competitors have been along the lines of, “Our devices will be able to do that stuff soon too.” No one is debating the concept of the Palm Pre, the current naysayers are addressing issues like the cramped keyboard or the feminine design.

Whether the Pre itself is a wild success bringing Palm back from the brink of extinction, or whether it is Palm’s final breath before dying – the Pre will set new trends in how smartphones are used marking the next step in the converged device evolution.

Just as the Treo converged devices, the Pre will likely show the world how much demand there is for converging all forms of modern communication.

Windows Vista has really had me thinking lately about the future of computers.

Google, Zoho and others have developed very usable programs that work from any Internet based computer allowing anyone to access fully functional programs and all of their data from any Internet enabled computer anywhere.

USB flash drives and portable hard drives have also taken on abilities that were once only found in stand-alone computers. These drives can now run entire programs allowing you to plug them into any computer and run your programs. Once the device is unplugged all of your data goes with it.

Smartphones, like  the iPhone and Blackberry, have replaced 90 percent of what most users used to need a laptop for. Email, basic web surfing, simple games and calendar management can now be done as easily on a cell phone as an expensive and bulky laptop.

I think that in the next five years computers will exist in one of three forms, and none of these forms resembles what we use today.

1. The credit card computer. The day will come when hundreds of gigabytes will fit on a chip as thin as a credit card and as small as a Tic Tac. As of this moment such a chip can hold over 30 gigabytes.

Perhaps one day we will simply have dumb terminals, computer monitors, keyboards and mice that use a simple network interface to connect to the Internet and devices such as printers, digital cameras and cell phones. These terminals will have no memory or storage abilities.

To use these computers, you will insert a small device that you carry in your wallet, or on your keyring. The dumb terminal will suddenly become your computer as it uses the programs and data from your credit card computer that is with you at all times.

2. The cell  phone computer. This is a variation of the credit card computer, but it  is much more practical.

The iPhone was not the first smartphone to combine computer functions with the portability of a cell phone, but it was the first smartphone to get the average user’s attention.

Devices like the Blackberry, Palm Treo and iPhone do more than the average computer was capable of seven years ago.

As memory, power and features expand in portable cell phones, would it be any surprise if we were able to carry our entire computer in such a small package?

Connect the phone into a similar dumb terminal as discussed in number 1 and you have a computer that works in the office, on the road and at home.

3. The Web 2.0 system. There is a good possibility that many computer users will be too attached to their non-portable desktop systems. There is comfort in having a solid 15lb. tower that connects all of your devices.

It is possible that personal computers may stay physically similar to what they are today for quite a while. However, the software on those systems will dramatically change.

Wireless broadband Internet will almost certainly reach most computer users in the next 10 years. This will lead to  Internet based computers. These computers will have a very plain operating system and limited storage capabilities. Powerful processors and video cards may still be essential for those who do games, graphics and CAD, but all programs and data will be stored in online accounts that can be accessed and used from any computer anywhere.

The debate between Mac and PC users will disappear as the operating system will play little or no role in the function of the computer.

I would not be at all surprised if Google is the driving force behind this type of computing. Especially since they already are the driving force for this type of computing.

No matter what type of computer we use, I think that the obvious end will be that TVs will double as monitors and all computing will be portable.

Every January I post my tech predictions for the coming year. In our last newsletter, I reviewed my predictions for 2007 and pointed out that, with a little justification, I was 100 percent correct.

Now for my tech predictions of 2008…

Ron Paul will not be elected and there will be riots. But, only on blog sites that no one reads. CNN, FOX and other mainstream news sites will be forced to shut off their comment feature when Ron Paul is not invited as a third party candidate after the primary elections are over and he fails to get the Republican nomination.

2008 will be Vista’s last year. Microsoft will announce a new OS that will appear in early 2009 that will not be called Vista. The new OS will be targeted at consumers and will be designed to compete with OS X and Ubuntu. I will not go so far as to say that it will be called MSLinux, but it wouldn’t surprise me.

2008 will be the last year that it really matters what kind of computer you have. Adobe will introduce an online version of Photoshop and other major titles will follow eliminating the need to commit to a single OS.

People will grow tired of smartphones and there will be a new surge in simple phones. Other manufacturers will compete with Jitterbug to create a whole new market of simple cell phones.

The spectrum auction will take place and many big companies will buy in hoping to introduce the world to ubiquitous wireless Internet. Stock prices of companies involved will rise sharply. Soon after the auctions a judge will rule that the technology violates privacy and security concerns – expect a sell off.

Palm will be all but dead as they drop plans to release a Linux powered smartphone. Instead they will release one last generation of Palm/Access powered phones based on the Centro design.

USB 3.0 or a similar connection type that allows massive transfer speeds from external devices will begin to show up in high-end computers.

Canon will release a 12 megapixel budget SLR to replace the Rebel XTi. It will also shoot 4 fps and feature live  preview mode.

GPS will show up in nearly all high-end cell phones and other devices. Two-way GPS will be much more common allowing parents to track children and bosses to track employees.

Non-tech predictions….

Scientists will discover what caused global warming the last 11 times it has happened in the world’s history.

Bin Laden will be found alive in a Home Depot parking lot in southern California.

A long time celebrity marriage will end in divorce.

The world’s attention will be turned to a young person’s sudden, mysterious disappearance.

A high profile court case will take place involving a murder – Nancy Grace will use it as the topic for her show on CNN Headline news for 16 straight weeks.

A well known celebrity will enter rehab multiple times but will continue their dangerous party life.

Perhaps in a related story, a celebrity will be arrested for drunk driving and The Smoking Gun will post their mug shot.

CBS will introduce a new crime drama with social awareness statistics hidden in 60 percent of the dialog. “Lieutenant , I just read in my research on this case that 60 percent of all CBS crime dramas are made up of social awareness statistics!”

Someone will give Sean Connery one ping and one ping only.